AHEAD forecasts and reports
4 file(s)
Predictive analysis
Anticipatory Humanitarian Action for Displacement (AHEAD) model
The AHEAD model uses machine learning to forecast displacement in sub-districts in Liptako-Gourma region in Sahel, covering Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, as well as in South Sudan and Somalia. The forecasts enables humanitarian actors to get ahead of displacement crises.
A holistic approach using Foresight's methodology helped to build a machine learning model that uses historical data from key displacement drivers in these three countries. The model is populated with open-source data on conflict, health, environment, food insecurity, number of IDPs, and income.
The model uses this information to predict how many IDPs there will be at a regional level to better inform the wider humanitarian sector. These location-specific forecasts can improve operational responses to support affected individuals.
Forecast reports, analyses and technical notes
Funded by
European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations
The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
